When I calculated the San Mateo County home sales absorption rates for October I got curious to see what they were over the past months of this year. I wondered if there was a consistent pattern to see if I could determine the direction of the market. I wish. It’s not that clear in most cities; however, there are a couple where it is.
Take a look at Daly City. The inventory has steadily declined from 5 months’ in January to 2 in October. Other than July – a traditionally slow month in Pacifica – that city’s inventory has seen a drop as well. Then there’s Woodside – good grief: 17 months’ inventory in October!
If the housing inventory numbers are low, a couple of sales and/or new homes for sale will make the absorption rates look crazy.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | |
| Atherton | 8.5 | 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 6 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 14 | 6.8 | 7.25 |
| Belmont | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 1.86 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Brisbane | 3.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 15 | 8.5 | 3.25 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 |
| Burlingame | 2.8 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.94 |
| Colma | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 4 | 2.0 | 3 |
| Daly City | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.96 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| El Granada | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4.8 |
| Foster City | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.14 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 3.75 |
| Half Moon Bay | 6.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 6.25 |
| Hillsborough | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 7.63 |
| La Honda | 11 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Loma Mar | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3.0 | 3 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Menlo Park | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.73 |
| Millbrae | 6.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.56 |
| Montara | 7.5 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 7 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 10 | 12.0 | 13 |
| Moss Beach | 4.5 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 4.25 |
| Pacifica | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.97 | 3.2 | 2.76 |
| Pescadero | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9.0 | 10 | 11.0 | 9 |
| Portola Valley | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 3.4 |
| Redwood City | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.58 |
| Redwood Shores | 1.8 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | 2.3 | 0 | 3.5 | 16 |
| San Bruno | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| San Carlos | 2.7 | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.65 |
| San Gregorio | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 |
| San Mateo | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.08 |
| South San Francisco | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.98 | 2.3 | 2.74 |
| Woodside | 5 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 12.5 | 18.3 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 16.67 |
July 2008, 2007, 2006 absorption rates
August 2008, 2007, 2006 absorption rates
September 2008, 2007, 2006 absorption rates
October 2008, 2007, 2006 absorption rates
Got a San Mateo County real estate question? Call me at 650.888.9268 or send me an email Vicki [at] CallVicki.com. If you like what you’ve read, subscribe to the San Mateo Real Estate Blog feed.
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