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Fast Facts for the California Real Estate Market
Provided by the California Association of Realtors

Median home price - April 09: $256,700

Highest median home price by region April 09:
Santa Barbara So. Coast $840,000

Lowest median home price by region April 09:
High Desert $106,530

First-time Buyer Affordability Index – First Quarter 2009:
69 percent

Mortgage rates – week ending 6/11/09
30-yr. fixed: 5.59% Fees/points: 0.7%
15-yr. fixed: 5.06% Fees/points: 0.7%
1-yr. adjustable: 5.04% Fees/points: 0.7%
(Source: Freddie Mac)

Medians for the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont Metropolitan Statistical Area which includes San Mateo County:

Median home price for San Mateo County Q1 2009:  $560,000.

2008:  Q1  $890,000;  Q2  $860,000;  Q3  $772,500;  Q4  $644,444.

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Central Park, San Mateo

Where We Are

Whether the bubble is popped and we’re over the hump may still be a question in the minds of some.  But based on what we’re currently seeing, not only in the statistics but in the field, we’re confident – at least for the moment – that the rough market conditions have subsided and we’re looking at stability for the near future.

Are The Banks Holding Back?

The only question in my mind is are the banks holding back on their inventory?  It’s a rumor that nobody seems to have an answer to.  Gary Miljour is asking that same question and getting a lot of different answers.

There’s No Blanket Answer

Tim Harris has a blanket answer that, yes, the banks are holding back and we haven’t seen the bottom.  That’s a somewhat dangerous statement since real estate is local.  Some markets may not have hit bottom, others have.  If the banks don’t have any inventory in those neighborhoods, then the likely conclusion is that they’ve hit bottom.

Month To Month

Previous years’ housing stats are interesting but tracking the year is probably more helpful for those purchasing a home in the near future.

Foster City Recovery

There was a blip in Foster City where inventory was really climbing and there was concern about the direction of prices.  Where they going to come down in one of the only cities in the county where they were holding steady?  Doesn’t look like it.  Foster City’s inventory is back down again.

San Mateo Micro Markets

Although this chart shows all of  San Mateo it doesn’t show the micro markets we have.  The Village is still hot – multiple offers are commonplace right now.  There have been a couple of houses that have sold without hitting the market; I have to question the reasons for that in a neighborhood that has that much interest.

Pacifica Too

Since Pacifica is my home town, I always have to take a closer look.  They’re seeing a similar situation as the Village:  Multiple offers on what’s considered the first-time buyer market.  The one caveat to that is always that the house has to be priced to create that kind of response.

Absorption Rates

The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.

What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.

You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.

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Shark Park, Pacifica

Not HVAC

It’s sure not cooling me off.

The Home Valuation Code of Conduct is supposed to regulate Realtors, appraiser and lenders – basically to keep us from scamming the consumer.  Since no one can seem to figure out who to blame for the bubble bursting there’s a blanket of new rules on everyone.

How?  By cutting the cord of communication.  The Realtor or lender can no longer even talk to the appraiser.  The appraiser is chosen by the Wizard of Oz standing behind the curtain.

Real Estate Is Local

Except for the appraiser.  Even the National Association of  Realtors finally got a clue and jumped on the bandwagon to educate consumers that listening to the national news to learn about their local neighborhood market was a bad idea.

A little real estate 101 here:  When you’re comparing apples, you compare them to other apples.

Because the Wizard – otherwise known as an Appraisal Management Company – chooses the appraiser, they’re coming from Russia to appraise Pacifica.  They don’t know that Rockaway Beach is different than Linda Mar.  Or that The Village is different than Shoreview.

What’s The Value?

A sale isn’t determined by what the market will bear or what a willing buyer will pay and a willing seller will sell for.  Sale price is now based on what the property will appraise for.

I just sold a house in San Mateo with 21 offers – yes, 21.  I had to advise the seller not to take one of the higher priced offers because I didn’t think the house would appraise.  I wouldn’t call that fair trade.  The seller leaves money on the table and so does anyone else in the neighborhood who wants to sell.  If the house is in a neighborhood of short sales like this one is – where values have dropped because of them – I’d be one pissed off property owner.

What Does It All Mean?

Tom Vanderwell tries to write a diplomatic, informative, nicey-nicey post.  I see it differently.  And I’m not the only one.

Cost?  Up.

I can’t say that I’ve relied on an appraiser “friend” to get a deal done, but I have many times called for their opinion.  Appraisers, just like Realtors, focus(ed) on a geographic area and were extremely knowledgeable about that area.

Time?  More and lots of it.  We’ve gone from 24 hour appraisal turn-around to being thankful to being able to get it done in 17 days.

Coordination?  We used to order inspections on the house; after the buyer determined to proceed with the sale the appraisal would be ordered.  Why?  To save money for god’s sake.  If the inspections were no good, why incur the expense of the appraisal?  Now it’s all done at the same time.  Inspections came back bad?  Oh well, you just lost $700 for them plus $400 for the appraisal.

Consumer protection?  Uh…I say not.

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Sharp Park, Pacifica

Home Buyer Tax Credit

Buyers used to have to wait for the $8,000 credit through their taxes. Now, in some situations, it can be used as part of the down payment.

FHA FHA FHA

First time home buyers must be using FHA-approved lenders and be buying an FHA insured home.

The Benefit

You still have to put 3.5% down. The $8000 can be used to increase your down payment and make you a better borrower, and thus get you a lower rate, or towards your closing costs like title insurance.

Check with your mortgage person to see if you can or should participate.

That’s my explanation.  Here’s theirs:

According to the California Association of Realtors, “U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan recently announced that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will allow home buyers to apply the administration’s new $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit toward the purchase costs of a FHA-insured home.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 offers home buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000 for purchasing their first home. Families can only access this credit after filing their tax returns with the IRS.

Home buyers using FHA-approved lenders can apply the tax credit to their down payment in excess of 3.5 percent of appraised value or their closing costs, which can help achieve a lower interest rate.”

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Extreme Pizza, Pacifica Gives to Avon Breast Cancer Team

Extreme Pizza Gives Back

They’ve been kind enough to donate 20% of proceeds over the two nights of June 10-11 to the Pink Pirates, Avon Breast Cancer Foundation Team.

I <3 Extreme Pizza

June 10th and 11th order from Extreme Pizza, Pacifica.  Mention this promotion and you too can participate in giving back to the community.

Contribute from the comfort of your home.  They’ll deliver your dinner and make the contribution.

Pre-ordering is appreciated.
(650) 738-8000

View the menu and order online.
Sorry, no other coupons accepted in conjunction with this offer.

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Ever wonder where all that stuff that the police confiscate goes? Some of it ends up at Property Room.  You’ll find jewelry, computer equipment, tools, even cars.

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Everyone wants to know if we’ve hit bottom yet.  I’d like to know too so I can go buy some new shoes.

There are a thousand ways to calculate and look at statistics.  Just listen to the announcer at the baseball game.  “He’s got a batting score of .285 in games played at home when the sun is shineing.”

Well, based on the number of houses sold in San Mateo County we hit bottom in January of this year.  What about prices?  I knew you’d ask that.  But I have to run to an appointment so tune in another time.

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Filoli

I’m Done

I finally finished the absorption rates for the first quarter.  Not that it was difficult.  I had already done the hard part.  I just needed to cut and paste but lately I have so much going on, I can’t keep up with the blog.

The Numbers

Generally, the inventory has continued to decline. Look at Foster City – whatever slow down they had going on over there is obviously taken a turn in the other direction. From 10 to 2 months’ inventory is huge.

The inventory decline in San Mateo doesn’t show what’s really going on in some parts of the market, but San Mateo isn’t the only city with declining inventory.  Belmont, Brisbane, and Pacifica are also showing decreasing housing inventory.

Absorption Rates

The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.

What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.

You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.

Popularity: unranked [?]