The absorption rate is a quick way to see if San Mateo houses are climbing in inventory or declining. It’s just one piece used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if San Mateo houses are in a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Little inventory means more competition for buyers out there trying to find a home.
Belmont
1
Burlingame
2
Daly City
*
Foster City
2
Half Moon Bay
7
Millbrae
2
Pacifica
1
Redwood City
1
Redwood Shores
*
San Bruno
*
San Carlos
1
San Mateo
*
South San Francisco
*
Real Estate Is Local
Remember, real estate is local. It’s important to dig deeper, neighborhood by neighborhood. But this gives us a good snapshot that inventory is down in these areas making it – without any doubt – a seller’s market.
Vicki Moore, Realtor
Alain Pinel Realtors, specializing in San Mateo, CA Real Estate.
Need real estate help?
Contact me at 650.888.9268 or Vicki[@]CallVicki.com.
The most obvious trend to continue through November and December is the lack of inventory in what are considered first-time home buyer areas such as Colma, Daly City, East Palo Alto, San Bruno and South San Francisco.
Redwood City has such varied neighborhoods you can’t describe it as just one housing style or price point. But the inventory has gone down significantly over the year; without more research I can’t say for sure but I wonder if that drop is partly related to the first-time buyers and investors out there competing for those short sales.
I’ve read several reports. Seems that once again opinions are like ears. Some say they’ll stay the same; some say they’ll rise.
You’re Not Buying A House – You’re Buying A Loan
Let’s play with interest rates. If you’re getting a loan of $600,000 at 5% you’ll be paying about $3200 in monthly payments.
$600,00 at 5.5% is $3400 a month.
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
2.8
3.4
3.7
2.3
4.6
3
3
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
1.7
1.4
1
2.6
1
2
1
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
3
4.3
2.6
1.7
2
2
1
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
1.6
2
2.2
2.4
2
1
1.5
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
1
1
3
1
0
*
*
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
3.6
2.8
2.7
5.4
3
5
4
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
1.5
1.4
2
2
2
1
1
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
7.9
5.5
3.6
3.8
3
3
3
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
4.7
5.9
2.8
4.4
3
3
3
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
6
5.5
4
3.3
2
1.5
2
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
*
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.9
2.2
1.9
2
2
1.6
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
2.3
2
2.2
1.7
2
*
1.6
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.3
3.5
3.3
4
14
2
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
4.5
5
3.7
6
13
3
9
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
3
2
2.5
9
2
3
4
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
3.4
5.5
3.1
3
2
3
4
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.3
1
1
1
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
2.3
3.3
3.2
1.9
2
2
*
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1
2
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
3
3
2
2
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
1.3
1.3
1
1
1
1
*
So San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
6.8
9.3
13
7.7
5
7
6
Real Estate Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Thanks for reading the San Mateo Real Estate Blog.
I love questions and comments. So please leave one!
Vicki Moore, Realtor
Alain Pinel Realtors, specializing in San Mateo, CA Real Estate.
Need real estate help?
Contact me at 650.888.9268 or Vicki[@]CallVicki.com.
First-Time Home Buyers are the Growing Share of the San Mateo County Real Estate Market
Daly City, East Palo Alto, San Bruno and South San Francisco actually have more houses under contract than they do available for sale. Stats prove what we’re seeing: Inventory is at an unbelievable low; it’s a sellers’ market and multiple offers are common.
Leslie Says
Leslie Appleton-Young, the economist for the California Association of Realtors, sees this trend continuing. She advises that the first-time buyer home prices will continue to strengthen over the next two years.
Housing Absorption Rates Year to Date
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
2.8
3.4
3.7
2.3
4.6
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
1.7
1.4
1
2.6
1
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
3
4.3
2.6
1.7
2
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
1.6
2
2.2
2.4
2
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
1
1
3
1
0
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
1
1
1
1
*
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
3.6
2.8
2.7
5.4
3
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
1.5
1.4
2
2
2
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
7.9
5.5
3.6
3.8
3
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
4.7
5.9
2.8
4.4
3
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
6
5.5
4
3.3
2
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.9
2.2
1.9
2
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
2.3
2
2.2
1.7
2
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.3
3.5
3.3
4
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
4.5
5
3.7
6
13
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
3
2
2.5
9
2
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
3.4
5.5
3.1
3
2
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.3
1
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
2.3
3.3
3.2
1.9
2
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
3
3
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
1.3
1.3
1
1
1
So San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
6.8
9.3
13
7.7
5
Real Estate Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Six months’ inventory marks the differentiation between a buyers’ and sellers’ market. Moss Beach, Pescadero and Woodside are the only cities in a buyers’ market.
Daly City – short sale heaven – is seeing 9 months of low, low, low inventory. And I can tell you things are hot there. Houses are selling within days – many for over the asking price. The first-time buyer market in general is HOT.
Another first-time buyer area is Pacifica – its inventory has taken a hit as well.
Foster City has seen some big changes in inventory since Spring. Housing choices are down quite a bit – from 10 months’ inventory all the way down to 2!
So is that it? Have we hit bottom? My standard answer: That depends. Depends on where – depends on price range – depends on condition of the house…
Month to Month 2009
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
2.8
3.4
3.7
2.3
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
1.7
1.4
1
2.6
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
3
4.3
2.6
1.7
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
1.6
2
2.2
2.4
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
1
1
3
1
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
1
1
1
1
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
3.6
2.8
2.7
5.4
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
1.5
1.4
2
2
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
7.9
5.5
3.6
3.8
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
4.7
5.9
2.8
4.4
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
6
5.5
4
3.3
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.9
2.2
1.9
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
2.3
2
2.2
1.7
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.3
3.5
3.3
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
4.5
5
3.7
6
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
3
2
2.5
9
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
3.4
5.5
3.1
3
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.3
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
2.3
3.3
3.2
1.9
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
3
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
1.3
1.3
1
1
So San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
1
1
1
1
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
6.8
9.3
13
7.7
Real Estate Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Got a Q?
Wondering about your neighborhood? Remember, real estate is local – really, really local. Send me an email or make a request in the comment box!
Six months’ inventory marks the differentiation between a buyers’ and sellers’ market. Looking at August, Woodside is the only city that’s over the swing to reach into a buyers’ market.
August Year to Year 2009 – 2006
2009
2008
2007
2006
Atherton
3.7
14
2.9
2.9
Belmont
1
3.8
1.9
1.1
Brisbane
2.6
5.5
1.7
11
Burlingame
2.2
2.1
3.1
2.7
Colma
3
4
4
1
Daly City
1
1.96
10.7
2.4
El Granada
2.7
2.7
5
3.7
Foster City
2
1.2
2
1.2
Half Moon Bay
3.6
3.8
12
4.7
Hillsborough
2.8
4.1
2.6
3.1
La Honda
4
6.5
6
3
Loma Mar
1
3
2
4
Menlo Park
2.2
4.1
2.8
3.5
Millbrae
2.2
2
3.3
2.9
Montara
3.5
10
5.3
11
Moss Beach
3.7
2.4
5
5
Pacifica
1
2.97
4.7
3
Pescadero
2.5
10
4.3
6.5
Portola Valley
3.1
10.5
2.8
9
Redwood City
1.2
2.9
4.4
1.8
Redwood Shores
3.2
0
1.8
4
San Bruno
1
1.7
7
1.6
San Carlos
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.6
San Gregorio
2
2
2
3
San Mateo
1
2.4
3.4
1.9
South San Francisco
1
1.98
7.7
2.8
Woodside
13
8.6
5.9
7.7
Month to Month 2009
Looking at the month to month inventory levels, there was a peak of houses on the market in March and April. Inventory has declined in all but a few cities like Colma, San Gregorio, and Woodside.
Foster City has seen a dramatic drop in inventory from 10 months’ to 2. What does that mean? Less to choose from; likely that houses are selling more quickly. Whether or not they’re selling for more money requires more research. That’ll have to be for another post.
Montara dropped from 16 months’ to 3.5. The Coast has been hit hard by this market. Price adjustments and long days on the market is a common sight. It’s just my interpretation, but it seems to me that The Coast is the first place to see the effects of a declining market and the last area to recover.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
2.8
3.4
3.7
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
1.7
1.4
1
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
3
4.3
2.6
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
1.6
2
2.2
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
1
1
3
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
1
1
1
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
3.6
2.8
2.7
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
1.5
1.4
2
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
7.9
5.5
3.6
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
4.7
5.9
2.8
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
6
5.5
4
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.9
2.2
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
2.3
2
2.2
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.3
3.5
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
4.5
5
3.7
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
1
1
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
3
2
2.5
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
3.4
5.5
3.1
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
2.3
3.3
3.2
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
1
1
1
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
1.6
1.9
1.8
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
1.3
1.3
1
South San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
1
1
1
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
6.8
9.3
13
Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
You
Interested in a particular area? Want to know what the stats say? Comment below or shoot me an email at Vicki[@]CallVicki.com
Six months’ inventory is the differentiation between a buyers’ and sellers’ market. Looking at July, Hillsborough, LaHonda, Portola Valley, and Woodside are the only four cities in the county reaching that.
Redwood City’s First-Time Buyers
I’ve been working with first-time buyers in Redwood City. The city as a whole has a relatively small amount of inventory; the first-time buyers are fighting investors for those houses. A recent sale on Marlborough priced at 299k – definitely designed to get multiple offers – received 12 last time I checked; probably more!
A house on MacArthur also priced to generate multiple offers ended up receiving nine offers. Surely it was an investor who won out on that house – they paid all cash to win it.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
2.8
3.4
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
1.7
1.4
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
3
4.3
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
1.6
2
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
1
1
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
1
1
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
3.6
2.8
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
1.5
1.4
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
7.9
5.5
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
4.7
5.9
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
6
5.5
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.9
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
2.3
2
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.3
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
4.5
5
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
1
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
3
2
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
3.4
5.5
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.5
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
2.3
3.3
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
1
1
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
1.6
1.9
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
1.3
1.3
South San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
1
1
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
6.8
9.3
Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Whether the bubble is popped and we’re over the hump may still be a question in the minds of some. But based on what we’re currently seeing, not only in the statistics but in the field, we’re confident – at least for the moment – that the rough market conditions have subsided and we’re looking at stability for the near future.
Are The Banks Holding Back?
The only question in my mind is are the banks holding back on their inventory? It’s a rumor that nobody seems to have an answer to. Gary Miljour is asking that same question and getting a lot of different answers.
There’s No Blanket Answer
Tim Harris has a blanket answer that, yes, the banks are holding back and we haven’t seen the bottom. That’s a somewhat dangerous statement since real estate is local. Some markets may not have hit bottom, others have. If the banks don’t have any inventory in those neighborhoods, then the likely conclusion is that they’ve hit bottom.
2006
2007
2008
2009
Atherton
2.8
2.6
6
4.6
Belmont
1
1
2
1.5
Brisbane
1.3
3.3
8.5
5
Burlingame
1.3
1.5
2.4
1.9
Colma
0
2
4
1
Daly City
2.5
3.9
2
1
East Palo Alto
2
4.7
4.3
1
El Granada
2.7
4
3.3
6
Foster City
2
1
1.8
2
Half Moon Bay
2.9
4.2
6.3
6
Hillsborough
2
2.9
5.8
4.3
La Honda
3.3
3.3
3.5
4.7
Loma Mar
1
3
4
1
Menlo Park
1.5
1.7
1.9
1.7
Millbrae
1.6
1.5
2.3
1.2
Montara
5
4.3
7
3.6
Moss Beach
3
4.7
4.5
12
Pacifica
2.4
4.7
3.7
1
Pescadero
6
4
8
3
Portola Valley
2.4
3
2.9
5.5
Redwood City
1.3
2
2.5
1.8
Redwood Shores
1.4
1
5
3
San Bruno
1.3
4
2
1
San Carlos
1.5
2.3
1.8
2.2
San Gregorio
5
0
2
3
San Mateo
1.3
1.6
2.3
1.6
South San Francisco
1.9
4
2.9
1
Woodside
8.8
3.3
12.5
7.6
Month To Month
Previous years’ housing stats are interesting but tracking the year is probably more helpful for those purchasing a home in the near future.
Foster City Recovery
There was a blip in Foster City where inventory was really climbing and there was concern about the direction of prices. Where they going to come down in one of the only cities in the county where they were holding steady? Doesn’t look like it. Foster City’s inventory is back down again.
San Mateo Micro Markets
Although this chart shows all of San Mateo it doesn’t show the micro markets we have. The Village is still hot – multiple offers are commonplace right now. There have been a couple of houses that have sold without hitting the market; I have to question the reasons for that in a neighborhood that has that much interest.
Pacifica Too
Since Pacifica is my home town, I always have to take a closer look. They’re seeing a similar situation as the Village: Multiple offers on what’s considered the first-time buyer market. The one caveat to that is always that the house has to be priced to create that kind of response.
January
February
March
April
May
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
4.6
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
1.5
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
5
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
1.9
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
1
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
1
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
1
El Granada
5
31
11
9
6
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
2
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
6
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
4.3
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
4.7
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
1
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
1.7
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
1.2
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
3.6
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
12
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
1
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
3
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
5.5
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
1.8
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
3
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
1
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
2.2
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
3
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
1.6
South San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
1
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
7.6
Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
Everyone wants to know if we’ve hit bottom yet. I’d like to know too so I can go buy some new shoes.
There are a thousand ways to calculate and look at statistics. Just listen to the announcer at the baseball game. “He’s got a batting score of .285 in games played at home when the sun is shineing.”
Well, based on the number of houses sold in San Mateo County we hit bottom in January of this year. What about prices? I knew you’d ask that. But I have to run to an appointment so tune in another time.
I finally finished the absorption rates for the first quarter. Not that it was difficult. I had already done the hard part. I just needed to cut and paste but lately I have so much going on, I can’t keep up with the blog.
The Numbers
Generally, the inventory has continued to decline. Look at Foster City – whatever slow down they had going on over there is obviously taken a turn in the other direction. From 10 to 2 months’ inventory is huge.
The inventory decline in San Mateo doesn’t show what’s really going on in some parts of the market, but San Mateo isn’t the only city with declining inventory. Belmont, Brisbane, and Pacifica are also showing decreasing housing inventory.
January
February
March
April
Atherton
25
18
8.6
10.8
Belmont
3
2
2.3
2
Brisbane
2
6
5
3
Burlingame
3.6
4
3
1.6
Colma
6
1
2.5
1
Daly City
1.3
1
1
1
East Palo Alto
1.3
1.6
1.4
2.4
El Granada
5
31
11
9
Foster City
6.5
10.7
10
2.8
Half Moon Bay
7.6
11
7.5
16
Hillsborough
7.7
12.8
5.9
5.9
La Honda
8
5
3.7
6
Loma Mar
1
1
1
0
Menlo Park
3.5
3.4
4
1.9
Millbrae
5.9
9.5
3
1.6
Montara
18
17
16
4.5
Moss Beach
10
16
7
5.5
Pacifica
2.8
2.8
1.9
1.3
Pescadero
8
4
5
2
Portola Valley
11
3.8
3.4
2.8
Redwood City
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.3
Redwood Shores
4.7
9
6
2
San Bruno
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
San Carlos
3.8
2.3
2.8
2
San Gregorio
2
2
1
2
San Mateo
2.9
3
2
2
South San Francisco
2.5
1.7
1.4
1
Woodside
16
6.8
7.3
7
Absorption Rates
The absorption rate is a quick way to see if the number of homes for sale in San Mateo County is going up or down. It’s just one of the statistics used to evaluate pricing.
What you’re looking at is how many months’ inventory there is on the market. The assumption is that it will take X number of months for all of the houses currently on the market to sell. More inventory = longer to sell.
You can also see if the area is a buyer or a sellers’ market. The National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as one is which there is 6 months of inventory. More than 6 months, it’s a buyers’ market; less is a sellers’ market.
